Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy S O Funtowicz

ISBN: 9789401067669

Published: October 1st 2011


231 pages


Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy  by  S O Funtowicz

Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy by S O Funtowicz
October 1st 2011 | Paperback | PDF, EPUB, FB2, DjVu, audiobook, mp3, RTF | 231 pages | ISBN: 9789401067669 | 9.68 Mb

60 -I 137.0 29 ERROR BARS tONE (1 / / / 4/0 / / E / a. a. / Z30 / 137.0388 / 0 137.0377 / / 20 / / 0 to 0 50 Fig.1. Successive recommended values of the fine-structure constand IX-I (B. N. Taylor et 01., 1969,7) reminder that the value is not fully accepted by colleagues, since they will expect it to jump about for a while longer. Our next example is taken from a recent study in the social sciences. It shows how a set of related estimates of uncertainty can be expressed clearly and effectively by NUSAP.

Suppose that we wish to forecast what the future price of a basic commodity might be, especially when at the moment its price is artificially maintained by a cartel of producers. There is no experimental evidence on such a future contingency, and yet we are not completely in the dark. There is a long history of expertise in the field- and there is a well-tried standard model by which experts guesses can be translated into mathematical form.

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